538: Conventional Wisdom on Oil Almost Always Wrong

Examining conventional wisdom on the economic impact of a decrease in the price of a barrel of oil, 538 analysis concludes- conventional wisdom is always wrong.  

 Why? It’s too complicated to predict what happens when the price of oil falls because the calculations include:

• politics, geo-politics greatly affects the price of oil
• complicated drilling economics
• complicated drilling financing
• no one knows what oil prices will do

Remember these are the guys with the instinct and analysis to predict Presidential elections that no one else contemplated. They did it with precision and accuracy.   538