How accurate are tax revenue estimates?

Some say New York’s proposed pied-à-terre tax, the tax on second homes with a value above $5 million, is said to have a $100 revenue shortfall. How? Some say it applies to fewer properties than the Governor’s revenue estimators.

See also this week’s post about how actuaries in Alaska got pension shortfall fiscal impact numbers wrong. Ask a different revenue estimator, get a different number.

Governing